Don't care about the Election? Here's how it's going to affect the world

As a woman... Ave Imperator, morituri de salutant.

Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States. We all know this by now, there’s no escaping the news when everyone is posting about it whether they support Trump or not and whether they’re American or not. These are simply the outcomes that will be in effect for America, and for other countries. There’s nothing we can do except accept the fact that he is now the president and what this means for the rest of the world. 

Disclaimer. I am a Kamala supporter. I do not support Trump in any way. I will remain unbiased however as this is thoroughly researched on all counts and effects that I can think of. 

Abstract

• Project 2025 is a political playbook created by the Heritage Foundation and dozens of other conservative groups, not Trump.

• There is some truth to Project 2025 that Trump says he endorses, with false facts on the Project 2025 website, however not all is false as Republicans have voiced their thoughts 

• High global inflation is predicted with 60% increase on Chinese exports, and 10% increase on Australian exports and Australia will face the hardest hit on its economy.

• NATO is scared that Trump will withdraw and Europe will face catastrophe. 

• Trump has indicated he wants the Gaza conflict resolved but faces challenges navigating between Israeli leadership, Arab allies, and the stalled ceasefire efforts initiated by the Biden administration, which include securing the release of hostages held by Hamas.

• He’s promised to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords. These bilateral agreements normalised relations between Israel and a few Arab states, but were widely seen to have sidelined the Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.

• With the House, Senate, and Congress in the republican majority, it’s basically Trump’s get out of jail free card. 

• There will be an increase in the death of women due to pregnancy related complications, with a further increase in infant mortality across the US following Dobbs Decision.

People walked up to that voting booth and said:

• Racism is not a deal breaker.

• Xenophobia is not a deal breaker.

• Misogyny is not a deal breaker.

• Sexual assault is not a deal breaker.

• Hate speech is not a deal breaker.

• Mishandling a pandemic is not a deal breaker.

• Inciting an insurrection is not a deal breaker.

• Felony convictions are not deal breakers. 

And voted for that man… again. 

2,115,409 votes as of 7:47 am AEST 7th November (AP, 2024) were wasted on third party candidates who didn’t even have a chance of winning the election. It was always going to be either Trump or Kamala. But over 71 million people voted for a president that’s been found liable for sexual abuse, with at least 26 sexual misconduct allegations, with 34 felony counts, that’s spewed racist and discriminatory rhetoric about black, brown, indigenous people, and immigrants, that plans on revoking basic human rights from the transgender community and women, that showcases extreme misogyny and has ‘no regrets’ on overturning Roe v. Wade. A president that has already been impeached twice and indicted for inciting a violent riot at the Capitol, has refused to do anything about gun control, despite the 450+ mass shootings that have already happened in America in 2024. 71 million people voted for Donald J Trump as the 47th president of the United States of America. 

What does this mean for the rest of the world?

Consequences for the Economy

This obviously isn’t our election to vote in, but it will have consequences for us. The US is Australia’s biggest ally with much of our future defence, security, and taxpayer dollars (tied into the AUKUS Alliance, which will see Australia purchasing US nuclear submarines. It’s a $368 billion dollar suicide vest by Scott Morrison.

With Trump’s keen interest in tariffs, he’s hostile to free trade and has an agenda which could make the future unpredictable and carry more risk. Trump’s love of tariffs seems to stem from his former economic adviser Peter Navarro’s belief that imports make the economy smaller. While imports do technically reduce Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that’s only done to avoid double counting. Every import we buy is something we consume and so if we didn’t subtract imports from GDP we would count things twice, first as an import and then as a consumption item (or investment if they are capital goods). 

His platform pushes to protect American workers and farmers from ‘unfair trade’, including baseline tariffs of at least 10% on imports to America from Australia and more severe tariffs on Chinese imports (60%) which impacts the economic growth of Australia’s biggest trading partner. Australia’s exports to China count as 36.9% of all total exports (ABS, 2024). China’s economy is already struggling and with these changes, a trade war (or even a real war) is on the brink. His idea is that reducing imports via a tariff would make America richer – even though everyone would instantaneously have to pay 10% more for every imported good. According to The Australian Institute, there was a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) in May 2024, that found that Australia would suffer the most. The report found that a 10% reduction of trade across all sectors between the OECD and the major non-OECD countries (which include China and India) would see Australia’s GDP fall by 1.2%. That was second-worst behind South Korea. Australia would suffer worse than any other nation in mining, agriculture, and metals and metal products, and third-worst for oil and gas extraction – only behind Russia and Brazil. 

With this agenda, economists from the US Federal Reserve are predicting that this could lead to high global inflation. So literally making the already bad inflation, even worse. 

Consequences for Australian women and women around the world

You cannot support women while actively supporting someone who wants to take their rights away. Here are the stats according to a Lowy Institute Poll. 22% of Australians prefer Trump over Harris. 30% of Australian men prefer Trump with 14% of Australian women. That’s almost 1 in 5 people. The restrictions on a woman’s choices about her body are already trickling into our system if we look at the policies of the winners of the recent QLD election. Why should we care about the US election? The question is why shouldn’t we? It may not affect us directly, but the consequences and the things that this implies are insane. The fact that a criminal can be president, a sexual assaulter, a felon, will put the idea into boy’s minds that it’s ok. That men will always get what they want at the end of the day. Maybe the 4B movement will catch on. 4B is a radical feminist movement which is purported to have originated in South Korea in 2019. Its proponents refuse to date men, get married, have sex with men, or have children. Then what will the men do? Not have a life partner or procreate that’s for sure. 

Trump’s second presidency will embolden Australia’s own wannabe ‘strongmen’ across local, state, and federal politics. Tactics such as the use of derogatory and offensive language, his penchant and offensive language and making up facts and stories to suit the narrative of the moment, and a focus on attacking women’s rights. The policies of the winners of the recent QLD election include abortion rights becoming a political plaything among conservative politicians with a pro-life movement entering the new state parliament. Last month in South Australia, a bill to amend abortion rights that was described as ‘Trumpian’ and ‘extreme’ was just one vote away from passing. 

Last week at a University of Sydney meeting for Representatives Elect for the Student Representatives, several unnamed male students laughed at and tore up copies of a detailed investigation into sexual violence and hazing on campus. Footage of the incident was captured by Honi Soit, who also reported that the group hung a TRUMP 2024 banner inside the meeting room. 

The divide is so vast that women are being reminded – via post it notes on tampon bins and the doors of bathrooms – that “no one sees you vote at the polls”, It’s a whisper to women in red states who might be fearing reprisal from husbands and other family members if they chose to vote for Harris over Trump. 

The changes and the consequences are already in effect, fuelled by Trump’s power, especially with his 2nd presidency, and probably will even increase in effect now that people can see that even a convicted felon can hold office. And men still ask why women around the world care about the US election. It affects all of us. And yet they can’t see that. Because it’s always men. 

Quotes from women:

• “I think the saddest thing as an adult woman is realising the men you are closely surrounded with are no different from each other. Deep down each and everyone of them will never understand the impact of their voice, bodily autonomy, and hope being taken from them. It doesn’t mean that I have no fear for my American cousins, and it doesn’t mean that there is hope with a president whose promises are weaker than his tan. Why is it my job to teach grown men to see nuances and lead with feeling? It’s not all men, no, but it’s always men.” - Phoebe Bourke

• “This is something that I know is right, and I need to be on the right side of history, and that if he does win, then at least I tried” - Taylor Swift

• “A vote for Trump is a vote against women” - Amira Zuhause

• “Please tell me again that #MeToo has ‘gone too far’. It has not gone far enough. A disgusting and demoralising result for survivors everywhere. I stand with you today.” - Lucia Osborne-Crowley

Consequences for Ukraine and Palestine, and other ongoing Wars

Russia vs Ukraine

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly said he could end the war between Russia and Ukraine “in a day”. When asked how, he suggested overseeing a deal, but has declined to give specifics. A research paper written by two of Trump’s former national security chiefs in May said the US should continue its weapons supply to Ukraine, but make the support conditional on Kyiv entering peace talks with Russia. To entice Russia, the West would promise to delay Ukraine’s much-wanted entry into Nato. The former advisers said Ukraine should not give up its hopes of getting all of its territory back from Russian occupation, but that it should negotiate based on current front lines. Trump’s Democratic opponents, who accuse him of cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin, say his approach amounts to surrender for Ukraine and will endanger all of Europe. He has consistently said his priority is to end the war and stem the drain on US resources. (BBC, 2024)

NATO

Nato is the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance of 32 member states—30 European and 2 North American. Trump has long been a sceptic of the alliance, accusing Europe of free-riding on America’s promise of protection. Whether he would actually withdraw the US from Nato, which would signal the most significant shift in transatlantic defence relations in nearly a century, remains a matter of debate. Some of his allies suggest his hard line is just a negotiating tactic to get members to meet the alliance’s defence spending guidelines. But the reality is Nato leaders will be seriously worried about what his victory means for the alliance’s future and how its deterrent effect is perceived by hostile leaders.

“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, Nato’s former deputy secretary general. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with echoes of his threat to withdraw from Nato in everyone’s ears.” (BBC, 2024)

Middle East

Donald Trump has pledged to bring “peace” to the Middle East, claiming he would end the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon, though he has not detailed how. He asserts that Hamas would not have attacked Israel under his leadership, citing his “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, a key supporter of Hamas. During his presidency, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal, imposed heavy sanctions on Iran, and ordered the killing of Iranian military leader Gen. Qasem Soleimani.

Trump's policies were strongly pro-Israel, recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and relocating the U.S. embassy there. This move pleased his evangelical base but alienated Palestinians, who boycotted his administration. His brokering of the Abraham Accords normalised relations between Israel and several Arab nations without requiring progress on a two-state solution, further isolating the Palestinians.

Critics argue Trump’s actions destabilised the region. While he maintains relationships with key Arab leaders and could apply pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, his approach to the current crises remains unclear. His allies tout his unpredictability as a strength, but the volatile situation in the Middle East raises questions about how he would balance support for Israel with efforts to end the war.

Trump has indicated he wants the Gaza conflict resolved but faces challenges navigating between Israeli leadership, Arab allies, and the stalled ceasefire efforts initiated by the Biden administration, which include securing the release of hostages held by Hamas.

More on China and Trade

America’s approach to China is its most critical foreign policy focus, with far-reaching consequences for global security and trade. During his presidency, Donald Trump labelled China a “strategic competitor,” imposing tariffs on Chinese imports, which led to retaliatory tariffs from Beijing. Efforts to ease the trade tensions were derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic, which worsened relations as Trump referred to the virus as the “Chinese virus.”

While the Biden administration promised a more measured China policy, it retained many Trump-era tariffs. Trade policy remains tied to domestic perceptions about safeguarding American manufacturing jobs, even though job losses in industries like steel are often due to automation and production changes rather than offshoring.

Trump has described Chinese President Xi Jinping as both “brilliant” and “dangerous,” acknowledging his authoritarian control over 1.4 billion people. Critics see this as part of Trump’s alleged admiration for strongman leaders. If re-elected, Trump appears likely to deviate from Biden’s strategy of strengthening regional security partnerships to counter China.

The U.S. continues to support self-governed Taiwan, which China claims as a breakaway province. In October, Trump claimed he wouldn’t need military action to counter a Chinese blockade of Taiwan, suggesting his unpredictability and the threat of severe tariffs would be enough to deter Beijing.

In Summary

On the Middle East, the Democratic candidate has repeatedly echoed Mr Biden’s firm backing of Israel’s “right to defend itself.” But she’s also made a point of emphasising that “the killing of innocent Palestinians has to stop.”

Trump has also declared it’s time to “get back to peace and stop killing people.” But he’s reportedly told the Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to “do what you have to do.” This could be the end of Palestine as we know it. 

The Republican contender prides himself on being a peacemaker. “I will have peace in the Middle East, and soon,” he vowed in an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Al Arabiya TV on Sunday night.

He’s promised to expand the 2020 Abraham Accords. These bilateral agreements normalised relations between Israel and a few Arab states, but were widely seen to have sidelined the Palestinians and ultimately contributed to the current unprecedented crisis.

• Five reasons why Israel's peace deals with the UAE and Bahrain matter

On Ukraine, Trump never hides his admiration for strongmen like Russia’s Vladimir Putin. He’s made it clear he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and with it the US’s hefty military and financial support. “I’ll get out. We gotta get out,” he insisted in a recent rally.

Consequences for the Environment

A Trump presidency would almost certainly ensure this keeps rising. During his deranged Republican National Convention speech, one of his biggest cheers came when he used the old line of “drill, baby, drill” (a line the Albanese government agrees with, given it keeps opening up new gas fields). So forget emissions reductions or global agreements while he is in power.

Climate change has barely featured in the election campaign, but both Trump and Harris couldn’t be further apart on their view on the issue. Harris must go further, but at least acknowledges the issue, describing climate change as an “existential threat”, Trump has previously used words like “hoax” on the matter. He’s expected to deprioritise scientific research, to pull out of the Paris Agreement (for a second time) and consider withdrawing the US from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 

A Trump presidency would see global action on climate change deprioritised further, which would have consequences for Australia and especially our Pacific neighbours. Such a shift would come just as the 8th State of Climate report for Australia has found the country has warmed 1.51 degrees since 1910 when records began and will warm further without global action to reach net zero. The result for Australia and our region is more frequent and intense extreme weather events that will challenge our resilience to respond, rebuild and keep up. 

The people who voted for Trump that have children. How could you? You’re voting for someone that will ruin the environment for all future generations and the climate is not something that you can go back in time and fix. Once it’s broken, it will stay broken and forever go down that path with no turning back.

In Conclusion

They say politics shouldn’t ruin your relationships. I think it should. Americans voted against the women in their life, the LGBTQIA+ people in their life, any minority in their life, and even in most cases against their own rights. You can’t support minorities and women when you’re actively supporting someone that will take away their rights.

They ask why should we care about the election when we're not even living in America? Because it affects women all around the world. It affects minorities and politics all around the world. There's already Trump like ideologies in place in Australian politics and with the election result, god knows what's going to happen.

This is a war on women. Possibly even a war on the world.